National Republican Congressional Committee: "There are no safe Republican seats"

by: philgoblue

Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 18:33:31 PM EDT

In the past they've been able to run on Gods, Guns, Gays and "we know how to run the economy."  But, in the light of stagnating salaries, sky high gas prices, the credit crunch, the deindustrialization of Michigan and America, and the bursting of the house bubble, the culture wars seem minor and the "we can run government like a business" crowd sounds like "we actually just run government like Enron."  

We've always dominated on the actual issues -- healthcare, education, environment, etc -- but have always had trouble getting our message out with a horse-race and scandal obsessed press corps that hates to report on issues and isn't generally buys into supply-side economics.  We've also been hampered since the Republicans usually outspend Democrats 2-to-1 and we let our field operations and activist mobilization systems fall into disrepair after the downturn in the power of organized labor in the 1970s and 1980s.  

Well, with the power of low-dollar donations and online outreach we've pulled even or ahead in fundraising and have found a way to match their power in direct mail.  As I've written before, the main lesson of the Obama win in the primary ought to be the power of grassroots volunteering in an organized field operation and tied together through email and the internet.  With the economy in recession, the war off the front pages mostly because Bush effectively surrendered to the Sunni militants and turned them into a provincial police force in Al Anbar and other Sunni majority districts yet no closer to whatever "victory" we might define, Bush at 28% approval, and the percentage of Americans saying "we're on the wrong track / we're dissatisfied with the current situation in America" somewhere around 80%, the Republicans are fearful of a tidal wave against them and for Democrats in November.

Friday, The Associated Press got their hands on a Republican blue-ribbon report reviewing the performance of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) given three straight loses in recent congressional elections in what had historically been safe Republican seats -- in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi.

According to the AP, the review committee primarily blamed the national political environment (re: Bush, War, Gas, Recession) but also noted that the Republican candidates were "less than optimal" and they ran flawed campaigns.  Apparently the biggest flaw was that the Republican campaigns mentioned they were Republicans running for national office and they used the old Republican playbook that this time around failed to sway voters.

The report said:

"None of the candidates nor their allies successfully established themselves and their local brand in contrast to the negative perception of the national GOP."

The review warned of the potential for widespread losses in congressional races this fall unless Republican candidates can overcome "negative perception of the national party."

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the NRCC, reacted to the private report by acknowledging the difficulties confronting her party.

"This is a challenging environment. Any Republican running for office has to run basically on an independent platform, localize the race and not take anything for granted. There are no safe Republican seats in this election."

The review advises Republicans to show "deep empathy towards the voters."  Now this is interesting given that I listened to Rush for 3 minutes a few days ago and he was talking about how great the economy is in America.  The report also stressed that Republicans running to be members of the House of Representatives in Washington DC should rely on local rather than national issues.  Somehow I doubt running a drain commission campaign is really going to help, but if that's what they want to do, OK.

The report was blunt, and although you can blame your defeated candidates pretty easily when it comes down to it, the Republicans had to admit that

Democratic candidates accurately reflected the views of the districts....

The Republicans have also stressed how well-funded the Democratic challengers were in these three special elections.  However, the ability of Democrats to have the money to get their message out isn't likely to change.  At the end of May, the National Republican Congressional Committee had $6.7 million in its bank account, while the Democrats reported $47.2 million (remember, don't just give to the Obama, but remember the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee).

Democrats currently hold a majority of 235-199, with one vacancy. We ought to be thinking of flipping 30-40 seats and taking our majority to something like 270-164.  This would put progressive Democrats in a clear majority and insure we have a strong bench for future runs at the Senate.

What does this mean to us here in West Michigan?

It means our top candidates like Fred Johnson and Don Cooney can win and are worthy of us giving them our hours and dollars.  

In West Michigan, first we have to believe we can win, then we have to work hard and smart, then ... we stun the country!