So...What The Heck Happened In the 101st?

by: AikoAdam

Wed Aug 06, 2008 at 19:39:26 PM EDT

"I am opposed to the renewable portfolio. I am opposed to the sale of pollution credits and the reason being, those are nothing more than cash transfers. They will drive up the cost of energy for this state. In fact the estimates we have out of the house uh party, er the house commission is that the renewable portfolio may add as much as 30% of the price to electricity over the long haul."

"Nuclear power has ZERO pollution and with some of the new fast breeder reactors that are available and being used throughout the world, uh nuclear waste could be virtually eliminated."

"Currently the restrictions they're talking about is anything over 50 million gallons a day on average. Replenishment in this state with rain and uhh ummm flow in is about 160 billion gallons a day. The thought that we're gonna run out of water to me is ridiculous. There's over 4 trillion gallons a day goes over Niagara Falls and out to the ocean. Another trillion goes through Chicago and out to the Mississippi. This state has an abundance of the most vast renewable resource we have which is water. Unfortunately it is a natural resource. Not unfortunately uh fortunately it is. If we're to restrict the use, it no longer is a resource if we're not able to use it. It's only a resource if we can actually use it...The replenishment is natural, it exists every day, and to think that we're running out of water, I'm sorry, is unrealistic to me."

"We must encourage business and prosperity to come back to this state and we do this with such things as right to work legislation."

I think about what I want to see in a person running as a Democrat. How do they earn my vote? They take strong progressive stances that appeal to me. So, if I were a Republican, I suppose I would look for the same thing. Ray Franz provided that for the right. Given it is the far right.

Also of note is the fracturing of the local republican county parties due to this primary election. It was blatantly obvious in the vote totals. In Manistee, Mason and Benzie, McManus and McCraner, who basically ran on the same message and platform, split the vote. Franz won Manistee County overwhelmingly. Last night as I watched the precincts come in, I believe when Manistee was at 4 out of 23 I could already see it happening. It was a given that McManus was going to win big in Leelanau. The other counties seemed up for grabs in days leading up to the primary. How wrong I was. What helped Franz is that all four of the counties in the 101st had numerous republican races. Turnout for their ballot was large. A lot of mischief was made as well. Manistee county was Franz's life raft. He won by a large enough margin in Manistee to make up the huge deficit in Leelanau and close races in Benzie and Mason.

Here is the good part for us.

The crowded primary up and down the ballot says a lot about the parties here. It isn't so much that they don't like their incumbents. It is that they won't fight very hard to keep them there and be ousted by their own party members. Having long term incumbents is a sign of party strength. Keeping others from within your own party from rocking that boat is also a sign of strength and cohesiveness. Having a four way primary that stretches your resources and local part loyalty well past it's breaking point is a sign of weakness. Yeah yeah yeah it's all very Democratic, but let's get real. You really try to keep this kind of thing from happening or at least to a minimum. You pick the best horse and place your bet. All in. That's how elections are won.

So the question now is, will the local republican county parties be able to scrap back together for Ray? I can see pressure coming for the others to endorse his candidacy, but there is a lot of dislike amongst this foursome. It may happen but it will be with a fake smile and gritted teeth and people will see right through it. The region has a small town atmosphere and word will spread fast that it's all for show. I don't believe the parties will be able to reconcile amongst their members in order to "rally the troops' for the big push for November. Ray did manage to win on little money. But he doesn't have the fundraising capability or chance of fundraising that McManus had. I can see Michelle McManus possibly throwing up some road blocks to money for Franz because of her father's loss. It isn't about party or ideology for them, it's all very selfish. On the other side of the spectrum Dan Scripps is a proven fundraiser. And guess what? It's not self funding either! Dan had over 1000 individual contributions to his campaign so far. Many small to mid range donors that he can go back to the well for. Ray has $2458.95 left after a brutal primary. Dan Scripps is sitting on $31,295.83. Dan has spent money,but he has what Franz doesn't and that is infrastructure. Dan has invested early in his campaign, because he has essentially been running a general election campaign for quite a while now. Ray Franz now has the unenviable task of switching gears to a general election with all of the negatives and baggage that the primary produced...and broke to boot. Now if McManus had won the primary I could easily see the MIGOP sending in the cavalry. McManus is a republican brand name. Albeit a hit and miss brand name, but recognizable at that. Ray Franz is a grocery store owner who just ousted the party flag bearer. There will be some help from the state party, but this race just dropped quite a few slots on their list of must saves.

And the MDP and all of Dan's supporters both in the state and nationally had a good chuckle and a hearty "w00t!" last night when the votes were all accounted for. This race will be night and day. Left and right. Dan's message will speak to the majority of the voters. Dan's campaign has been in high gear for a long time now. Good luck getting your engine to shift into second gear Ray.